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First of all, I would like to wish all of you a happy new year. I have noticed that there are often dire warnings at the beginning of each year about the prospects for emerging markets. In 2016, a stockmarket crash in China and rising tensions in the Middle East had many investors running for cover. Last year, protectionist threats and a rising US dollar threatened to undermine the fortunes of developing countries. But emerging markets have proven to be far more resilient than in the past and have begun to benefit from structural reforms that have protected their economies far
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better from external shocks than previously.
In the short term, emerging markets will continue to benefit from relatively stable global economic conditions with average growth likely to hit 4.9% in 2018 compared to 4.6% last year. Longer term, however, developing countries face bigger structural challenges that their governments would do well to start addressing now. Within EMIS we talk a lot about the “demographic dividend” that has underpinned the performance of emerging markets. Countries in in Asia and Latin America, in particular, have benefited hugely from huge increases in working age populations over the past few decades. That dividend cannot last forever, however, and the demographic profiles of large emerging markets like China are changing rapidly with ageing populations and the resulting slowdown in labour participation rates.
This is a topic that is covered extensively in the 2018 edition of the EMIS Foresights magazine, our look ahead for the year for emerging markets. The publication is available free of charge to current EMIS subscribers here and also to non-subscribers here.
Guy Dunn
P.S. Here are a few interesting news articles on EMIS that caught my eye last week.
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BRAZIL PHARMA & HEALTHCARE SECTOR 2017/2021
Brazil is the eighth-largest pharmaceutical market in the world. In 2016, the retail drug market, based on ex-factory prices, rose by 15.5% y/y to BRL 87.2bn, supported by upward price dynamics and steady demand for innovative patented drugs. In volume terms, however, the market has showed clear signs of deceleration, as a result of the deterioration of the job market and the decreasing disposable income of the population.
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CEIC DATA POINT OF THE WEEK
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CEIC Data is a sister company of EMIS and part of the Euromoney Data Division
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HONG KONG PROPERTY MARKET
The world's most expensive housing market soared 12.9% in the first 11 months of 2017 as residential property prices increased to their highest level of all time.
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Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
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JOB PROSPECTS IN GCC STATES TO IMPROVE IN 2018
The states that belong to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will see employment prospects improve in 2018, Arabian Business reported citing the Hays 2018 GCC Salary and Employment Report.
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ABOUT EMIS
EMIS operates in and reports on countries where high reward goes hand-in-hand with high risk. We bring you time-sensitive, hard-to-get, relevant news, research and analytical data, peer comparisons and more for over 120 emerging markets.
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EMIS CHARTING TOOL
EMIS CHARTS uses selected data points from the subscription-based EMIS service, to provide you with an interactive overview of sectors, key players and macroeconomic trends across 120+ emerging markets and allows you to create your own charts.
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