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22 January 2018
FROM THE CEO OF EMIS
There are very few people better qualified to offer a perspective on emerging markets than Mark Mobius who is about to retire after 30 years managing emerging markets portfolios at Franklin Templeton. His valedictory blog piece on the Seeking Alpha site last week makes for interesting reading.

Mobius makes many positive observations on the development of emerging markets in the time that that he has focused on them. He notes the change from 
commodity-driven economies to ones that are far more driven by innovation and technology and the expansion of the consumer and travel sectors afforded by the rise of the middle class. But perhaps the most important message from this developing country doyen is about the ability of these markets to rebound strongly from crises and upheavals. He provides the recent revival in Argentina and recovery in Nigeria as examples of such “bouncebackability”.

Mobius’ self-proclaimed “cynical optimism” when it comes to emerging markets very much reflects our view at EMIS. We share the view that developing countries are often a rollercoaster ride and may not be for those of a nervous disposition. But the future continues to be bright so long as governments continue to learn the lessons of the past.


Guy Dunn


P.S. Here are a few articles on economic developments in emerging markets from EMIS last week

GHANA FORESEES GROWTH IN 2018
Ghana is highly tipped to economically outperform other counterparts in sub-Saharan Africa this year and grow at 8.3 percent, buoyed by oil & gas expansion.

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NIGERIA'S CONTRACTION IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO ABOUT 0.6 PER CENT IN 2018 
The contraction in Nigeria's economy is projected to drop to about 0.6 per cent in 2018 and further to about 0.1 per cent in 2019 according to the African Development Bank.

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CHINA INVESTED US$20.9 BILLION IN BRAZIL IN 2017
Brazil expects Chinese investment to continue increasing this year as asset prices remain low after the recession that ended last year but economic growth picks up.
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INFOGRAPHIC OF THE WEEK
CZECH REPUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 2017/2018

The transportation and storage sector is one of the important service sectors in the Czech Republic. The sector’s gross value added (GVA) reached CZK 242bn in 2016, accounting for 5.6% of total GVA and 9.3% of GVA from services. The transportation and storage sector’s share of total GVA declined compared with 5.8% in 2011 due to the economic downturn and the European debt crisis.


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CEIC DATA POINT OF THE WEEK
CEIC Data is a sister company of EMIS and part of the Euromoney Data Division
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTPUT EXPANDED SHARPLY IN DECEMBER
The Global PMI data signalled that global economic output continued to expand sharply in December. In the last month of 2017 the seasonally adjusted index increased for a third consecutive period reaching 54.4 as output rose at the fastest pace since March 2015.
   Click to view it full screen   
WEEKLY NEWS SUMMARY
Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
    ASIA    
INDONESIA WILL INVEST $14.89 BILLION TO SUPPORT LOCAL STEEL INDUSTRY
The government is planning to invest $14.89 billion to boost the development of three steel industry clusters in Indonesia.

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CHINA REPORTS 7.9% INCREASE IN 2017 FDI INFLOWS
Foreign Direct Investment into China increased by 7.9% year-on-year to 877.56 billion yuan ($136.36 billion) in 2017 as a result of the country’s continued efforts to improve the business environment for foreign investors. 

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ISRAEL, INDIA BOOST BILATERAL TIES IN VARIOUS SECTORS
Israel and India have boosted their bilateral ties in various sectors ranging from oil and natural gas to film production, Business Standard reported. 

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              LATIN AMERICA              
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION IN MEXICO RISES 2.5% Y/Y IN OCTOBER
Private consumption in Mexico increased 2.5% year-on-year in October, M-Brain News Monitoring reported citing figures released by the national institute of statistics (INEGI). 

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CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY IN CHILE GROWS 2.9% Y/Y IN NOVEMBER
Construction activity in Chile rose 2.9% year-on-year in November, CEEMarketWatch reported citing figures released by the local Construction Chamber (CChC). 

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FDI IN COLOMBIA JUMPS 37% Y/Y IN DECEMBER
Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) surged 37% year-on-year to USD 1.2bn in December, CEEMarketWatch reported citing figures released by the local central bank Banco de la Republica. 

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     EMERGING EUROPE     
POLISH PGZ TO JOIN OCEAN 2020 PROGRAMME
Poland’s defence group PGZ has decided to join the programme for construction of unmanned platforms for reconnaissance and surveillance of marine basins known as OCEAN 2020. 

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ROMANIAN PM RESIGNS AFTER RULING PARTY WITHDRAWS ITS SUPPORT
Romanian Prime Minister Mihai Tudose announced he is stepping down on Monday evening after the ruling Social Democratic Party pulled its support for him, thus collapsing the government for the second time in less than a year.

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USDA EXPECTS RUSSIA TO EXPORT 35MN TONNES OF WHEAT IN 2017/2018
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast Russia to export 35mn tonnes of wheat in 2017-2018 agricultural year that runs from July 1, 2017 through June 30, 2018.

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          MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA          
SAUDI CAR-HIRE APP AIMS TO RECRUIT 10,000 WOMEN DRIVERS
Saudi car-hire app Careem aims to recruit 10,000 women drivers in the next few months as it plans to launch services dedicated to ladies and families only, Arab News reported. 

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SOUTH AFRICA CONFECTIONARY INDUSTRY BRACES FOR NEW TAXES, HEALTHIER PRODUCTS
South Africa confectionary industry should get ready for possible introduction of new taxes now that the sugary drinks will be taxed in the country as of April 2018, Business Report said.


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CHINESE FIRM TO INVEST USD 220MN IN COTTON MILL IN ETHIOPIA
Chinese company Wuxi No. 1 Cotton Mill will invest USD 220mn in a cotton mill in Ethiopia. 

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ABOUT EMIS
EMIS operates in and reports on countries where high reward goes hand-in-hand with high risk. We bring you time-sensitive, hard-to-get, relevant news, research and analytical data, peer comparisons and more for over 120 emerging markets. 
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