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We had to wait a while but President Trump has finally delivered on his election promise to impose tariffs on imports, starting with steel and aluminium. Apart from what little remains of the United States’ steel manufacturing community, pretty much nobody thinks this will work out well. Stock markets reacted badly, important trade partners like Canada and the European Union expressed alarm and even senior figures within his own administration appear to be dismayed.
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Protectionist policies were seen as the major risk to economic stability resulting from a Trump presidency. As time passed with no sign of policy changes, optimism grew that economic reality was holding sway over election rhetoric. A global trade war now looks a plausible scenario, one that could massively destabilise the economic progress of both developed and emerging economies. Already, there are retaliatory threats from other nations that could impact on far more important US industries like agriculture as well as increasing costs for American consumers.
Trump’s move has widely been seen as a shot across the bows of China but the irony is that it is likely to be more detrimental to his own supporters. The hope must be that he will recognise that this is a self-harming policy before a completely unnecessary global trade war ensues.
Guy Dunn
P.S. Here are a few articles on this issue from EMIS last week.
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TRUMP STEEL TARIFFS WILL HIT US ALLIES
President Donald Trump's planned tariffs on steel and aluminum put United States allies around the globe in a tough spot Friday, driving down stock prices and generating warnings of a possible international trade war.
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AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE POLICIES FOR FARMERS IN PERU
The number of small-scale farmers with agricultural insurance in Peru almost doubled since the start of the insurance campaign in 2014 to over 280,000 at present. Farmers obtain cover for crop failures caused by extreme weather under an initiative of the Peruvian Ministry of Agriculture.
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Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
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CHINA DROPS IMPORT DUTIES ON US BROILER CHICKENS
China has removed the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on white-feathered broiler chickens from the United States in a bid to strengthen the trade of agricultural products between the world’s two largest economies.
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RUSSIA MULLS SETTING UP BAD ASSETS BANK
Russia might use one of the bailed out banks to set up a bank of bad debts, Prime reported citing Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseyev. He did not provide much details and only said that possibly this bank will be outside the perimeter of Otkritie.
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HUNGARY’S AD SPENDING JUMPS 11.5% Y/Y IN 2017
Hungary saw spending on advertising in the country rise by 11.5% on an annual basis to HUF 241 billion for 2017, the Budapest Business Journal (BBJ) reported citing the Hungarian Advertising Association (MRSZ).
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