2 - 8 April 2016

From the CEO OF EMIS

The butterfly effect when new Chinese economic data is released was particularly pronounced at the beginning of this year as a slowdown in growth was seized upon by more alarmist commentators as a precursor to another global recession. More positive news does not command quite such attention but is important to acknowledge nonetheless. Two separate manufacturing purchasing manager indices for China each showed a pickup in March, the first rise in a while and indicating expansion in the sector after months of negative sentiment.

Combine that with a higher level of activity in the services sector in China, a critical indicator in the long-term rebalancing of the Chinese economy, and there are reasons to believe that the doom-mongers of January overreacted.

Of course, there is a long and bumpy road ahead for an economy whose rise has been founded on exports and sectors such as manufacturing and real estate where there is now overcapacity. Previous growth levels were always going to be unsustainable in the long-term but the new normal for China’s economy is unlikely to be as grim as predicted.

Best wishes,

Guy Dunn
Chief Executive Officer

P.S. You may be interested in an article I published on Linkedin last week on going local in emerging markets.

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EMIS operates in and reports on countries where high reward goes hand-in-hand with high risk. We bring you time-sensitive, hard-to-get, relevant news, research and analytical data, peer comparisons and more for over 120 emerging markets.

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