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19 December 2016
FROM THE CEO OF EMIS
With two weeks remaining of 2016, there is little doubt that the events of this year are likely to resonate well into the future. Depending on your point of view, 2016 was either the year when dangerous and retrograde attitudes triumphed or when complacent establishment elites finally got their comeuppance. Wherever you stand, we can all probably agree that the world feels a lot more at odds with itself than for some time.
You may remember that I provided some less than serious predictions for the first half of 2017 in my last newsletter. You can see the full list of forecasts here and perhaps weigh in with some of your own. Here are the predictions for July to December:

July 2017
At the G20 summit in Hamburg, a diplomatic incident is narrowly avoided after President Trump is overheard offering to sell Alaska back to the Russians in return for planning permission for his Kremlin Casino and Spa.

August 2017
Dismayed at how things are turning out in the country he used to lead, ex-President Barack Obama insists that he was born in Kenya after all.

September 2017
China and India announce the formation of the 'AU', an economic community of Asian countries aimed at promoting free trade and movement of people. Scotland, the City of London and Mexico apply for membership.

October 2017
To mark the centenary of the Russian Revolution, parliament declares Russia a monarchy and appoints Putin as Tsar.

November 2017
Donald Trump’s tax returns are finally released and reveal him to be forty times richer than previously thought. Asked why he had not released them sooner, President Trump insists it was because it is vulgar to talk about money.

December 2017
A month after Kanye West wins the Booker Prize and four months since Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn posthumously won a Golden Globe, it is announced that an actual writer would win this year’s Nobel Prize for Literature. Donald Trump is awarded the coveted prize for The Art of the Deal.

This will be the final EMIS weekly newsletter of 2016 so I would like to wish all of you a peaceful and happy holiday season and here’s to an eventful 2017!


Guy Dunn

P.S. Here are some festive articles I came across on the EMIS platform last week. 

ROME HAS THE ‘UGLIEST CHRISTMAS TREE IN THE WORLD’
Rome's annual Christmas tree has been dubbed the 'saddest in the world' with drooping limbs, lackluster lights - and not even a star on top.

  Read more  
PAKISTAN LAUNCHES CHRISTMAS TRAIN
The Pakistan government has announced the launch of a special train in order to facilitate movement of the Christian community across the country on the eve of Christmas.

  Read more  
REFUGEES FROM MPOKO CAMP PREPARE TO GO 'HOME FOR CHRISTMAS'
Plans to evacuate an airport camp in the Central African Republic, where tens of thousands of people have taken refuge since the country's brutal conflict erupted in 2013, were dubbed "Home for Christmas".
  Read more  
INFOGRAPHIC OF THE WEEK

The infographic details the top emerging markets M&A deals in November 2016, ranked by deal value. 


  Click to view it full screen  
WEEKLY NEWS SUMMARY
Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
  ASIA  
DIGITAL TV AWARENESS IN THAILAND NOW AT 77%
Obtainment Co, the company hired by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) to promote digital TV awareness via various media channels, reports good news in its campaign.

  Read more  
SINGAPORE RETRENCHMENTS HIGHEST SINCE 2009
According to the most recent data released by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM), layoffs in Singapore has hit a seven-year high in the first nine months of 2016.  

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U.S. CONVEYS SUPPORT FOR SOUTH KOREA’S ACTING PRESIDENT
In a message delivered over the phone, the United States relayed its support to South Korea and expressed that it is looking forward to cooperating with South Korean Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn, reported Yonhap News. 
  Read more  
        LATIN AMERICA        
COLOMBIA’S LABOUR INFORMALITY RATE FALLS TO 48.4% IN AUG-OCT
Labour informality rate in Colombia decreased to 48.4% in the moving Aug-Oct quarter from the 48.9% in the same period last year, CEEMarketWatch reported.

  Read more  
CHILEAN ECONOMISTS REDUCE THEIR GDP GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2016
Economists reduced their GDP growth and inflation forecast for Chile, CEEMarketWatch reported citing the BCCh’s latest monthly survey.
  Read more  
M&A RUSH IN BRAZIL
Brazilian individuals who plan to make deals of mergers and acquisitions are in hurry to complete them by the end of the year to avoid payment of higher taxes on capital gains, Valor Economico International reported.

  Read more  
              EMERGING EUROPE              
POLISH E-TRADE TO DOUBLE BY 2020-RZECZPOSPOLITA
The volume of the Polish e-commerce market will double by 2020, BBJ - Regional Today reported on Wednesday citing Polish daily Rzeczpospolita.

  Read more  
GAZPROM GETS EUR 800MN LOAN FROM MIZUHO, SMBC, JP MORGAN
Russia’s top natural gas provider Gazprom signed on Monday a deal to get an EUR 800 million loan with Japanese Mizuho Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) and with US bank J.P. Morgan.

  Read more  
ROMANIA’S SOCIAL DEMOCRATS WIN GENERAL ELECTIONS
Romania’s social democrats PSD 45.2% of the vote on the general elections held on Sunday, a year after public anger over a deadly nightclub fire forced them from power, AFP reported. 
  Read more  
                 MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA                 
IRANAIR TO WRAP UP AIRBUS DEAL IN TWO WEEKS
Iran's flag carrier IranAir expects to wrap up a deal to buy aircraft with French manufacturer Airbus in two weeks, according to media reports citing IranAir Chief Executive Farhad Parvaresh as saying on Tuesday. 

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SHARES OF ADB START TRADING ON THE GHANA BOURSE
The shares of the Agricultural Development Bank (ADB) started trading on Tuesday on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) following an initial public offering (IPO) in which the bank raised GHc325.7 million. 

  Read more  
NIGERIA’S OCT FX REVENUE DOWN 32% TO $957.3MN
Nigeria’s foreign exchange revenue declined by almost 32% month-on-month to $957.3 million in October due to attacks by militants on the country’s oil infrastructure, Petroleum Bazaar – PetroMag reported.

  Read more  
ABOUT EMIS
EMIS operates in and reports on countries where high reward goes hand-in-hand with high risk. We bring you time-sensitive, hard-to-get, relevant news, research and analytical data, peer comparisons and more for over 120 emerging markets. 
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