28 November -  4 December 2015

There is sometimes a tendency amongst commentators to treat emerging markets as if they are a homogeneous group; all succeeding or failing together. In reality, these developing countries are each subject to their own unique circumstances that push them forward or hold them back. Neighbouring countries can have radically different prospects depending on internal issues like the availability of natural resources, demographic trends or political stability.

Take the examples of Vietnam and Thailand. Not hugely different in terms of populations and with similar trade opportunities, their prospects differ starkly. Vietnam’s growth is buoyed by strong domestic demand and foreign investment while Thailand’s performance is undermined by sluggish exports and a deteriorating political situation.

As forecasts for emerging markets in 2016 start to appear, it’s worth bearing in mind that no two countries are the same. Below are some articles published on EMIS in the last week that exemplify this uneven picture. As always, I appreciate your views on which markets offer opportunity or risk in the next twelve months.

Best wishes,
Guy Dunn
Chief Executive Officer

CENTRAL BANK SEES SUSTAINED GROWTH

The Turkish economy should see continuing moderate economic growth, according to minutes of the last Central Bank policy committee meeting.

GLOOMY FORECAST FOR BRAZIL IN 2016

Worse-than-expected economic output in the third quarter has triggered a series of GDP forecast revisions for this and next year.

INDIAN ECONOMY ON THE RIGHT PATH

The Reserve Bank of India left the policy rate unchanged in its final monetary review and confirmed that the recovery path looks "sustainable".

CHINA'S PLASTIC INDUSTRY: MELTING AND MOULDING

As costs increase and competition becomes fiercer with the economy's slowdown, China's plastics industry has entered a transitional period of consolidation.

COLOMBIA FOOD AND BEVERAGE: BEARING FRUIT

In 2014, Colombia's food and beverage trade surplus nearly doubled compared to 2013, boosted by an expansion of exports by 19% y/y.

Brazil's airlines are headed for a tough time until 2017. Eduardo Sanchez, president of the Brazilian Association of Airlines, stated "despite low prices, growth is not happening". Our latest infographic demonstrates the measures each airline will take to save money in the coming year.

Up until now, China has been fortunate to avoid the gaze of Islamic State. But after Chinese citizens have been killed, will the nation be spurred into action?

Following an outbreak of avian influenza in Dordogne, South Korean authorities have suspended imports of French poultry and live birds.

The Indonesian government is looking at imposing taxes on soda and bottled tea, a move that could be "crippling for an industry that's just getting started".

Guatemala's Energy and Mines Ministry has approved a project from Geotermia Oriental de Guatemala to build a new geothermal power plant.

Puerto Rico is on the edge of default because its authorities have not yet decided whether the U.S. territory can make a USD 355mn bond payment.

The Venezuelan medical import sector needs USD 1bn to maintain operations, yet only USD 15mn had been handed out to date.

When Turkey shot down a Russian warplane last month, relations between the countries immediately came into question.

France pledges to support Russia's investigation of the terror attack on a Russian plane above the Sinai Peninsula, in which 224 people died.

Bahamas and Cyprus account for the highest FDI flow to Russia, with contributions reaching USD 2.33bn and 
USD 1.15bn respectively.

The energy services company signed a contract with an undisclosed Iraqi oil company to provide project management for an onshore facility.

Read more…

The Mohammad Abdulla Omran Group is going to boost 
its food and beverage business with an investment of 
USD 13.6mn.

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South Africa's largest gold producer, Sibanye, is looking to acquire several platinum properties and has placed back-to-back bids for numerous mines.

EMIS is designed specifically to provide organizations with the information they need to succeed in emerging markets through a unique combination of company, industry and country intelligence.

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