9 January - 15 January 2016

Earlier this month, the World Bank released its growth forecasts for developing economies. Amid some gloomy projections for previously high-growth countries, there is one very important country that is bucking the trend. India is forecast to grow at 7.8% this year and 7.9 in 2017 and 2018.

How is India swimming against the tide of emerging market negativity? "In contrast to other major developing countries, growth in India remained robust, buoyed by strong investor sentiment and the positive effect on real incomes of the recent fall in oil prices," the World Bank said. There are other reasons to be optimistic about India. Its fiscal deficit has reduced from 7.6% of GDP in 2009 to 4% today. The country is less reliant on a slowing China than other countries and is a net importer of oil. Foreign direct investment remains strong. And the positivity around India is rubbing off on its near neighbours. Both Bangladesh and Pakistan are forecast to maintain relatively strong levels of growth in the next couple of years.

Here are some stories published on EMIS in the last week that reflect the positive outlook for South Asia.

Best wishes,
Guy Dunn
Chief Executive Officer

SALARY INCREASE IN INDIA IS FORECASTED FOR 2016

Mercer´s All Industries Total Remuneration Survey, revealed an estimate of a salary raise of 10.5% in 2016 for industries and career levels.

BANGLADESH ECONOMY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE SECOND OUT OF 93 COUNTRIES IN 2016

According to Bloomberg, Bangladesh´s economy is expected to grow 6.6% in 2016, only behind India which is forecasted to reach 7.4%.

PAKISTAN INVITES US BUSINESS COMMUNITY TO INVEST IN THE COUNTRY

Prime Minister wants to attract US investors with their regime, that allows foreign investors to repatriate 100% profits .

INDIA RETAIL: OUT OF MALL SPACE

Many malls have been built hastily or at poorly chosen locations, which makes them unattractive, while urbanisation has led to the development of new main streets.

POLAND REAL ESTATE: OFFICE FEVER

Large office space construction pipeline in Poland's capital will further boost supply in the segment and could lead to increased vacancy rates in the city.

Last week the World Bank released their forecasts for global GDP growth and India is expected to grow by an enormous 7.8 percent, 0.9 percent more than China and Bangladesh. In fact, the World Bank has predicted that India could become the fastest growing economy in the world by 2018, overtaking China. Oil prices declining recently has slowed other emerging markets, leaving India space to shine with a strong currency and stock markets.

PLDT signed an agreement with Hong Kong’s PCCW Global. The deal aims to improve connectivity between the Philippines and Hong Kong.

With the current power supply agreement, port access and ongoing rail linkage project, India is strengthening its economic ties with Bangladesh.

The EU import ban on four vegetables is still in place for another year even after stringent quality control and packaging measures have been implemented.

Following the crisis that hit one of the biggest airline companies in Brazil in regard to passengers boarded, Gol’s management strives to stop the cash drain.

Argentina’s fiscal deficit declined to ARS 9.2bn in November, down 48.2% from ARS 17.7bn in October, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MECON) revealed on Tuesday.

Same-store sales by the largest retailer in Mexico, Walmart, increased by 9.1% y/y in December and 6.4% for 2015 as a whole, as quoted by Milenio. 

According to analysts from the Lewiatan Confederation, the Polish economy is quite likely to grow with 3.6 to 3.7% this year.

The Lithuanian state-run energy company Lietuvos Energija is looking to acquire wind power generation facilities in Lithuania and Estonia as well.

Turkey is expected to reign inflation in the next few months because the main drivers of the inflation are easing, a number of analysts agreed on Wednesday.

Leading Iranian dairy producer, Iran Dairy Industries Company (IDIC) has recently obtained a permit to exports of its products to Russia, Iranian media reported.

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The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan has bought an office building in Milano for EUR 97mn.The transaction is part of the fund’s strategy to diversify its real estate portfolio.

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Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment Minister Nurul Islam said that Saudi Arabia has expressed its intent to hire 400,000 workers for domestic service.

EMIS is designed specifically to provide organizations with the information they need to succeed in emerging markets through a unique combination of company, industry and country intelligence.

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