Request a demo   30 January 2017 FROM THE CEO OF EMIS My enduring optimism about the prospects for emerging markets in the face of anti-globalisation sentiment in developed countries was boosted last week by the opinion of the head of a large US-based hedge fund. Jordi Visser, head of investments at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, expressed the view that emerging markets may actually benefit from the protectionist policies of major export markets like the United States. The theory is that emerging markets will be forced to look  at other ways to achieve economic growth – initiatives that will provide much stronger foundations for long-term prosperity. Mr Visser touted structural reforms like building infrastructure, reducing corruption and strengthening healthcare and pension provisions as drivers of productivity, consumption and wage growth in domestic markets. For some time I have been proposing structural economic and political reform as the way forward for emerging markets rather than their traditional reliance on cyclical export and commodities markets. It seems strange to think that it might be protectionism, of all things, that provides the spark for this change. Guy Dunn P.S. Here are a few articles on this topic from the EMIS platform last week. You could also try our weekly quiz if you have a few moments to spare. HEDGE FUND SAYS TRUMP PROTECTIONISM MIGHT BENEFIT EMERGING MARKETS Curtailing access to the world's biggest market appears damaging, on the face of it, for the emerging markets relying on exports to catch up to developed nations. An alternative view: it could be just what the doctor ordered. Economic resilience comes from domestic demand.   Read more   PROVINCES IN CHINA PUSH FOR STRUCTURAL REFORMS Supply-side structural reform will continue to be a priority of provincial governments this year as China resolves to press ahead with the major tasks of reform amid downward economic pressure, say provincial governors and businessmen.   Read more   BRAZIL'S REPUTATION CAN ONLY BECOME BETTER THROUGH REFORMS A deeply unequal Brazil will persist if the Brazilian economy does not resume growth. It is imperative that the Michel Temer government reinforces expectations that the country will move ahead.   Read more   INFOGRAPHIC OF THE WEEK TOP 10 GLOBAL ECONOMIC LOSS EVENTS In year 2016 there were 315 natural catastrophe events that generated economic losses of USD 210bn, of which only 26% (USD 54bn) was covered by insurance. Despite the relatively low coverage, insurance industry losses were 7% higher than the 16-year average and the highest since 2012.    Click to view it full screen   WEEKLY NEWS SUMMARY Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.   ASIA   HSBC ECONOMIST WEIGHS IN ON TRUMP EFFECT An economist from HSBC weighed in on the possible effect of US president Donald Trump’s protectionist policies on the Philippines, saying that the country remains “quite insulated”.    Read more   INDIAN FOOTWEAR FIRMS GO CASUAL Leading Indian footwear firms Relaxo Footwears Ltd, Liberty Shoes Ltd, and Bata India Ltd are revamping their products and marketing strategies to target younger consumers. Liberty Shoes, well-known for its formal leather shoes, is now focused on the casual footwear segment, its primary money maker.   Read more   SK MARKS 9.3% INCREASE IN CIGARETTE SALES DESPITE GOV’T INITIATIVES Despite South Korea’s government-led anti-smoking initiatives and campaigns and even prices hikes, cigarette sales still increased last year.    Read more           LATIN AMERICA         HONDURAS’ CONSTRUCTION SECTOR GREW BY 5.6% IN 2016 The construction sector in Honduras grew by 5.6% in 2016, M-Brain news agency reported citing preliminary figures of the local Central Bank. This good performance is mainly driven by housing and public infrastructure projects. In this regard, the financial institution expects the sector to expand over 6% this year.    Read more   FOREIGN OIL, GAS COMPANIES TO RESTART EXPLORATION IN BRAZIL IN 2017 Foreign oil and companies are expected to gradually resume seeking oil and gas offshore Brazil as last year only one of them, Repsol Sinopec, drilled an exploratory offshore well, Valor Economico International reported on Monday.   Read more   MEXICO RISKS CREDIT-RATING DOWNGRADE, MOODY’S WARNS Mexico is at risk of sovereign credit-rating downgrade this year, CEEMarketWatch reported citing an announcement of Moody’s analyst Jaime Reusche. “The risk of a credit downgrade, with respect to last year, has risen a little more but we don’t think it has increased exceedingly” Reusche said as quoted by Reuters.   Read more                 EMERGING EUROPE               FRESH REAL ECONOMY DATA BODE WELL FOR POLAND’S 2017 GDP OUTLOOK The fresh real economy data released Thursday bode well for Poland’s 2017 GDP outlook, PNB reported referring to data by the Central Statistics Office (GUS) and comments by local experts. Industrial output increased by 2.3% year-on-year in December, beating consensus forecast. Construction output was still lower by 8.0% on the year but again the drop was twice smaller than expected by the market.   Read more   ROMANIA EXPECTS 5.2% ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 2017 Romania’s newly-appointed social democrat government expects a 5.2% economic growth this year as the gross domestic product is to be some EUR 181.55 billion, according to the draft of the state budget, business daily Ziarul Financiar reported on Monday.    Read more   CZECH CAR MAKER SKODA AIMS AT DOUBLING ANNUAL SALES BY 2025 The largest Czech carmaker Skoda Auto will aim to double its annual sales to 2mn cars by 2025, CTK reported citing Skoda’s board chairman Bernhard Maier. Skoda boasted record 1.13mn deliveries worldwide last year. Investments in new technologies, innovative infotainment and mobility services will support this plan, he added.   Read more                    MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA                  NEW ADMINISTRA-TION CLAIMS THE GAMBIA IS MISSING MILLIONS The Gambian treasury is missing more than $11 million as the country’s former ruler Yahya Jammeh headed into political exile, according to media reports citing the country’s new administration.   Read more   POLL: 82% OF NIGERIANS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ECONOMY IN 2017 Some 82% of the Nigerians believe that the country’s economy this year will be better than in the last year, Business Day reported on Friday citing a poll by NOIPolls.    Read more   EQUATORIAL GUINEA APPLIES FOR OPEC MEMBERSHIP Equatorial Guinea has applied to become this year a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Daily News reported on Thursday citing a statement by the country’s Ministry of Mines, Industry and Energy.    Read more   ABOUT EMIS EMIS operates in and reports on countries where high reward goes hand-in-hand with high risk. We bring you time-sensitive, hard-to-get, relevant news, research and analytical data, peer comparisons and more for over 120 emerging markets.    Read more   EMIS CHARTING TOOL EMIS CHARTS uses selected data points from the subscription-based EMIS service, to provide you with an interactive overview of sectors, key players and macroeconomic trends across 120+ emerging markets and allows you to create your own charts.    Try it out now   EMIS IN NUMBERS 125 countries  1.4 million companies  58,000 articles per day 235 million searchable archive  250 industries  EMIS VIDEO SIGN IN HERE Copyright © 2016 EMIS, all rights reserved.