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Welcome to the first weekly EMIS newsletter of 2017 and happy new year to all of our subscribers.
At this point, it is very difficult to plot a trajectory for emerging market economies over the coming 12 months. Until President-elect Trump is inaugurated later this month we can only guess the degree to which he will implement the policy slate on which he was elected.
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The biggest threat to emerging market prospects is an ever-strengthening US dollar but the boost the currency received on the back of the election result seems to be waning due to fears for the economic outlook in the country. The other main risk for developing countries is the threat of trade tariffs on countries like China. It will be hard for President Trump to completely renege on such a key area of his manifesto but escalation into a full trade war looks unlikely due to the hugely negative impact that would have on the global economy and, therefore, the US itself.
If we were able to assume a vaguely rational approach to economic affairs from President Trump, there is reason to think that most emerging markets will continue on a path of growth or recovery in 2017. However, what cannot be accounted for at this point are actions from the new administration in the geopolitical arena that could undermine the world order. We’ve already seen the baiting of China through the opening of US-Taiwan communications. Who knows how the curious new relationship between Russia and the US will play out?
We at EMIS intend to keep you fully appraised of the key developments that impact on emerging market companies, sectors and economies over the coming year. Here’s hoping that we are able to report on events that are mostly positive.
Guy Dunn
P.S. Here are some articles I came across on the EMIS platform last week related to emerging market prospects in 2017.
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CHINA SEES ECONOMY GROWTH AT 6.7% IN 2017
China's economy appears poised to deliver growth that should equal the 2016 pace, but potential trade frictions with the US could pose a challenge for policymakers, economic experts said at a discussion on the Chinese mainland's 2017 prospects.
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ASIA BRACES ITSELF FOR TURBULENT TIMES
Czar Nicholas II, contemplating the new year a century ago, is said to have written in his diary that "1916 was cursed; 1917 will surely be better". After a year of slowing growth, tension in maritime spaces, several political shocks and the threat of extremist violence, wide swathes of Asia could be excused for sharing similar sentiments as they settle in for the challenges that lie ahead in 2017.
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EXPERTS ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RUSSIA´S ECONOMY IN 2017
Analysts are optimistic that the Russian economy has adjusted to the new environment in 2016 and is ready to recover in 2017. According to estimates of 47 analysts polled by Bloomberg, Russia's GDP growth will amount to 1.1%, inflation will slow down to 5.1% and budget deficit will be 3% of GDP.
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If you’ve not yet had a chance to test yourself against our Quiz of 2016, here’s another chance!
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Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
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PARK A NO-SHOW AT IMPEACHMENT TRIAL
Following her absence in last Tuesday’s first formal hearing, President Park Geun-hye was once again a no-show at her impeachment trial today.
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VITOL TO ALLOCATE $1BN LOAN TO IRAN – SOURCES
The Netherlands-based oil trader Vitol, the world’s top independent oil trader, will allocate a $1 billion loan to Iran to help the country to boost its oil production, Press TV reported on Thursday citing sources by Reuters.
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UGANDA’S INFLATION UP IN 2016
Uganda marked a growth in both annual headline and annual core inflation last year and the inflation rate is to keep on rising this year due to a drought that impacts the largest part of the country.
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IRAN, RUSSIA MULL SETTING UP ISLAMIC BANK
Iran and Russia are considering an opportunity to set up an Islamic bank in a move to expand their economic cooperation and diversify funding options for the companies.
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