09 - 15 July 2016

From the CEO OF EMIS

Just over halfway through the year, it’s worth taking a moment to consider where emerging market prospects stand now compared to expectations at the beginning of 2016. At the beginning of the year I was writing about the Chinese stock market crash and tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia as being among the imminent threats to developing economies. Fear around those issues quickly dissipated although China’s relatively sluggish growth remains a concern.

Other developments like Brexit and the rise of populism around the world have emerged as unexpected influences on emerging market fortunes.

By and large, conditions for emerging markets are more favourable now than six months ago. Currencies have strengthened, commodities have rallied somewhat and Brexit appears to be having a positive impact as investors look to emerging markets for growth. The Institute of International Finance’s latest emerging market growth tracker seems to back up this positive prognosis. They report that GDP in emerging markets grew by 4.7% in the second quarter of this year and that growth is at a 2-year high.

2016 has so far proved that nothing should be taken for granted and has made many forecasters look foolish so I’m not going to make any rash predictions that emerging markets are back on a relentless upswing. Many things could still happen this year that will derail progress and much depends on the US election in November. But the general optimism around emerging markets at the moment is something that I, as CEO of EMIS, intend to enjoy while it lasts.

Guy Dunn
Chief Executive Officer

Here are some article from EMIS that convey current EM optimism:

CALESTOUS JUMA: AFRICA´S POST-BREXIT ASPIRATIONS

Africa has reasons to be optimistic about the opportunities that Brexit presents.

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ASIAN MARKETS RECOVER AGAIN

Asian stock markets moved up for a fifth-straight session Friday following yet another record close on Wall Street.

NARENDRA MODI GOVERNMENT BY JON THORN

Jon Thorn, co-founder and director of India Capital Fund Management Ltd, declared that the Narendra Modi government is moving into the "pay-off stage".

The infographic of this week details Asia's top M&A deals in June 2016, ranked by deal value.

RUSSIA ENERGY: BALANCE OF POWER

In 2015, Russia regained its positions on the electricity market due to the depreciation of the ruble after having lost competitive advantage on some of its export electricity markets after Scandinavian.

THAILAND TOURISM: LAND OF THE THOUSAND ISLANDS

The Thai tourism and hospitality sector bounced back strongly in 2015, with an overall hotel occupancy of 73.4%, up by 13.6% y/y, and international arrivals reaching 29.88mn.

Kantar Worldpanel Thailand surveyed 4,000 Thai households last year, and published their findings in the Brand Footprint Report.

In 2015, the government decreed the use of B30 biodiesel in power stations beginning this year. The policy aims to trim crude oil imports.

Transport minister Anthony Cheung Bing-leung has asked the MTR Corporation to check on the quality of new trains purchased from a mainland manufacturer.

Argentina’s environmental and sustainable development ministry MAyDS has called a public tender to buy 400 electric urban buses.

Brazilian newspaper Valor Econômico reported that the only producer of methanol in the country, Companhia Petroquímica do Nordeste (Copenor).

German car manufacturer Volkswagen has confirmed its plan to invest EUR 100mn in Argentina, M-Brain reported on Thursday.

International oil major Royal Dutch Shell has shown interest to acquire shares in production assets of Russian gas producer Gazprom.

Indian car parts manufacturer Sona will build a 4.2 billion forint (EUR 13.2 million) plant in Hungary, Intraday News reported citing the Hungarian Foreign Minister.

Turkey wants to continue talks with Russia on the natural gas pipeline project Turkish Stream, newswire Prime reported on Monday citing Economic Minister.

The Tanzanian economy, East Africa's second-biggest, grew 7 per cent last year and for 2017 expects to grow 7.4%, driven by construction, communications and finance.

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In a farewell meeting with the outgoing Ambassador of the Republic of Sweden to Nigeria, Mr. Svante Kilander, in the State House.

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Ivory Coast aims to almost double oil and gas production within the next four years as foreign investments will help it develop offshore reserves in the oil-rich Gulf of Guinea.

EMIS operates in and reports on countries where high reward goes hand-in-hand with high risk. We bring you time-sensitive, hard-to-get, relevant news, research and analytical data, peer comparisons and more for over 120 emerging markets.

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