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12 -
18 March
2016
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From
the CEO OF EMIS
What
a difference a few months make. As we entered 2016, the negativity
around emerging markets was palpable. The Chinese economy looked like
it was heading for a hard landing and there was no end in sight to the
freefall in commodity prices. Now, as the prospects for China improve,
commodities bottom out and further US rate rises delayed, the prospects
for emerging markets suddenly seem a lot rosier.
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Not
all emerging markets, of course. Brazil’s political chaos
escalated further this week with the former president appointed to a
ministerial position, a move that has been interpreted as providing him
with protection from prosecution. The ensuing outcry may well lead to a
change in government, something that financial markets have anticipated
and that has provoked rallies in stocks and currency. The hope for
Brazil is that things can’t get any worse and that the
economy has reached an inflection point.
The
current optimism around emerging markets is relative but not without
foundation. One thing is for sure, there is rarely a dull moment!
Best
wishes,
Guy Dunn
Chief Executive
Officer
P.S.
My latest LinkedIn article
sets the
challenge of writing a history of a recent event in just six words. I
invite you to take part.
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EMIS
Insights and reports
Here
are two of our own exclusive industry insights from EMIS' team of
highly experienced, locally-based analysts. EMIS Insights deliver the
most relevant industry news, data and research from over 25 sectors in
21 countries.
ARGENTINA
OIL & GAS: TIERRA DEL SHALE
In
order to recover its energy self-sufficiency, a total of USD 88bn
should be invested in the Argentinean oil & gas sector over the
period 2016-2023, with the majority of these funds allocated for shale
oil and gas exploration.
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INDONESIA
CONSTRUCTION: ROADS FOR YOUR MONEY
The
construction sector of the archipelago nation is dominated by
infrastructure projects funded by the government. As a first step,the
government cut fuel subsidies to save money for infrastructure
projects.
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Infographic
of the week
As the “taper tantrum” of 2013 and similar in 2015
showed the emerging markets sensitivity to the idea of the US Federal
Reserve raising rates, could the reality be even more brutal? Investors
fear it could well be but the reality may be different. Institutional
investors are certainly preparing themselves for a fresh period of
turbulence across emerging stocks, bonds and currencies in at least the
next 12 months and the Fed’s move to raise rates on December
16 is seen as one of the main triggers for this.
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Weekly
News summary
Below
are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS
Perspectives, our daily blog of
emerging market news and insights.
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