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14 - 20 May
2016
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From
the CEO OF EMIS
It has been a long time since international trade deals and the issue of protectionism have been the focus of so much attention and controversy. Antipathy towards long-standing trade agreements has been stoked in the US election campaign. The UK’s Brexit debate has generated wildly conflicting claims about the impact on exporters if the country were to leave the European Union. There are calls for trade penalties on China for perceived dumping of cheap steel on importers.
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While it seems unlikely that protectionist policies will win out, there still ought to be concern over the potential impact on both emerging and developed economies from any inhibition of free trade. Emerging markets have largely achieved growth by being able to trade successfully with developed countries. They are not able to fall back on domestic consumption to mitigate restricted cross-border trade. In turn, developed countries have benefited from cheaper goods and services from developing countries and protectionist policies could provoke a trade war that results in huge job losses and renewed economic turmoil.
The populist notion being pushed in developed countries is that they are losing out in terms of jobs and investment to developing markets. If that is true, there are other issues at play than trade agreements, notably unbalanced economies and declining productivity. Protectionist policies may strike an emotional chord in some constituencies but they are likely to exacerbate economic problems rather than alleviate them. Ultimately, there are only losers in trade wars.
Guy Dunn
Chief Executive
Officer
Here are a few articles I came across on the EMIS service this week related to the issue of international trade
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Infographic
of the week
With the fertility rate and the number of live births in decline, Turkey is facing a common population problem. Didem Danis, an associate professor of the Sociology Department of Galatasaray University in Istanbul, draws attention to the fact that the elderly population has increased significantly over the past decades.
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EMIS
Insights and reports
Here
are two of our own exclusive industry insights from EMIS' team of
highly experienced, locally-based analysts. EMIS Insights deliver the
most relevant industry news, data and research from over 25 sectors in
21 countries.
BRAZIL RETAIL SECTOR: FROM BOOM TO GLOOM
In 2015, retail sales volume contracted by 4.3% y/y, the largest annual drop since 2001. All retail segments ended 2015 with a decrease in sales over the previous year, with the only exception being pharmaceutical and medical goods.
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CHINA COAL MINING: KING COAL'S FEET OF CLAY
The continuous drop in coal prices resulted in a large decline of the industry profits, and only producers with operations in other industries such as power generation and coal-to-chemicals production, managed to partly offset the negative impact.
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Weekly
News summary
Below
are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS
Perspectives, our daily blog of
emerging market news and insights.
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