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07 - 14 November 2016
FROM THE CEO OF EMIS
It’s hard to know where to start with the events of last week. In my previous newsletter I contemplated the possibility of a Trump presidency but I share the surprise of most that it actually happened. So what now?

As I write, the US stock market is hitting record highs and emerging market currencies are being heavily hit. Conventional wisdom is that emerging markets 
are going to suffer as a result of President-elect Trump’s stated intention to renegotiate trade agreements and impose import tariffs. There is also the worry that US inflation will be stimulated by growth in fiscal spending that Trump has promised, leading to increases in interest rates – never a good thing for emerging market investment.

But the thing to remember in the feverish aftermath of a political upset like this is that policy shifts like these are both difficult to implement and may take a long time to achieve. Much of what Mr Trump has spoken about is likely to be watered down, even with a compliant house and senate (which he may not in fact be able to rely on). We have to hope that even a President Trump recognises the benefits that international trade bestow on the US population and that his protectionist agenda will not be enacted in full. 

Ultimately, no one really knows how all this will play out. Conventional wisdom no longer seems to apply. I, for one, am optimistic that emerging markets retain the foundations and resources for growth in the long-term. Can we confidently say the same about developed countries?

Guy Dunn
Chief Executive Officer.

P.S. Here is some reaction from emerging markets to the US election that I came across on the EMIS platform last week.
CHINA WANTS TO PUSH FORWARD ITS FREE TRADE AGENDA AT THE APEC SUMMIT IN LIMA
China plans to push forward its free trade agenda at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru, this month, at a time when the United States just elected anti-trade Donald Trump president.
  Read more  
MEXICO FEARS TOUGH TIMES WITH TRUMP
From avocado orchards to border factories, Mexican exporters who have prospered under two decades of NAFTA face the prospect of an abrupt end to the boom if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump carries out his threats to ditch the free trade pact.
  Read more  
TRUMP'S VICTORY WILL CHANGE U.S.- RUSSIA RELATIONS
A Trump presidency is perhaps the least predictable in American history, but one thing seems certain: a sea-change in U.S.-Russia relations is on its way.
  Read more  
INFOGRAPHIC OF THE WEEK
The infographic details the top emerging markets M&A deals in October 2016, ranked by deal value. 


  Click to view it full screen  
WEEKLY NEWS SUMMARY
Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
  ASIA  
NINE POLISH FIRMS EXPLORE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN PH

Stronger trade and ties are expected between the Philippines and Poland, currently the country’s 52nd biggest trading partner. 
  Read more  
CHINA REACTS TO US ELECTION RESULTS WITH CAUTION

China treated news of a Donald Trump victory with caution, reported PTI News, after keenly following how the election season unfolded with both candidates showing a tough stance against Beijing. 
  Read more  
NEW BORDER CROSSINGS BRING LAOS, CAMBODIA CLOSER

Earlier in June, Laos and Cambodia’s Prime Ministers Thongloun Sisoulith and Hun Sen have agreed to plans of opening new border crossings to link the two countries.
  Read more  
        LATIN AMERICA        
PETROBRAS AND YPFB TO INVEST $ 1.2BN IN GAS EXPLORATION PROJECTS IN BOLIVIA

Brazilian state oil company Petrobras and Bolivia’s state-run YPFB signed a USD 1.2bn contract to explore two natural gas fields in southern Bolivia.
  Read more  
BOLIVIA’S GAS EXPORTS DROP 48.8% Y/Y IN JAN-SEP 2016

The value of Bolivia’s gas exports dropped 48.8% to USD 1.54bn in the first nine months of this year compared to the USD 3.92bn recorded in the same period of 2015.

  Read more  
CITIBANAMEX CUTS 2017 GROWTH FORECAST FOR MEXICO AFTER TRUMP VICTORY

Mexican bank Citibanamex lowered its growth outlook for 2017, from 2.3% to 1.8% due to the surprising victory of Donald Trump in the USA presidential elections. 
  Read more  
              EMERGING EUROPE              
RUSSIA ALLOWS IRANIAN COMPANY TO BUY 53% OF ASTRAKHAN PORT

Russia’s Federal Antimonopoly Service said on Monday it has approved an acquisition of some 53% of the Caspian port of Astrakhan to an Iranian company for marine transportation of cargo and passengers Nasim Bahr Kish.

  Read more  
MARKS & SPENCER TO PULL OUT OF POLAND

UK retailer Marks & Spencer on Tuesday announced plans to start talks with 351 employees about its plan to close down 11 stores in Poland.

  Read more  
PUTIN CONGRATULATES TRUMP

The Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday congratulated Donald Trump as the winner in the US presidential elections, newswire Prime reported.

  Read more  
                 MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA                 
FDI TO NIGERIA DROP 53% TO $341 MN IN Q3 Y/Y

Foreign direct investments (FDI) to Nigeria fell 52.54% on the year to $340.6 million in the third quarter of this year, Vanguard-Nigeria reported on Tuesday citing data by the national bureau of statistics, NBS.
  Read more  
ALGERIA’S PRIVATE SECTOR EYES $2.5BN INVESTMENTS IN SOLAR PLANTS

Algeria’s private sector plans to invest some $2.5 billion in solar power plants with an overall capacity of 2 GW in the next five years, CEEMarketWatch - Daily News reported on Thursday citing state newswire APS.
  Read more  
FRENCH TOTAL IN $4.8 BN GAS DEAL IN IRAN

French oil and gas company Total has signed a preliminary deal worth $4.8 billion for development of a natural gas project in Iran together with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and China National Petroleum Corp (CNCP).

  Read more  
ABOUT EMIS
EMIS operates in and reports on countries where high reward goes hand-in-hand with high risk. We bring you time-sensitive, hard-to-get, relevant news, research and analytical data, peer comparisons and more for over 120 emerging markets. 
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EMIS CHARTING TOOL
EMIS CHARTS uses selected data points from the subscription-based EMIS service, to provide you with an interactive overview of sectors, key players and macroeconomic trends across 120+ emerging markets and allows you to create your own charts. 
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