15 - 20 November 2015

Welcome to the new-look weekly EMIS newsletter. As you will see, we have made some big changes to the range of information we provide each week and the way it is presented. Distributed every Monday from now on, this newsletter will present some of the key stories and themes from emerging markets in the previous seven days. The aim is to give you an easily digestible view of important developments in the more than 120 developing markets we cover.

Happily, this first version of the newsletter coincides with an encouraging forecast from Goldman Sachs that emerging markets are about to turn the corner after three years of disappointment. They are predicting that developing countries will grow at 4.9% next year compared with 4.4% in 2015, the first acceleration in growth since 2010. Below are a few articles I have selected from the EMIS service that help to support that positive outlook. I welcome your views on the prospects for emerging markets in 2016.

Best wishes,
Guy Dunn
Chief Executive Officer

Perfect storm of low inflation & optimism encourages urban spending

Low inflation and optimism are encouraging urban consumers to spend more, in turn sending out early signs of a revival in the Indian economy.

ASEAN GDP growth to reach US$4.7 trillion

With the imminent establishment of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) by year-end, the region's economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to reach US$4.7 trillion by 2020.

Brazilian seed capital to bear more fruit

Seed capital has sprouted in 2014 and 2015 and should bear even more fruits by next year. Several efforts started or intensified in the period have been helping to democratize small-investor access to start-ups.

China Property: Losing touch with realty

China's property market experienced a notable downturn in 2014 when prices went downhill while investment growth, albeit remaining positive, slowed significantly to just 10.5%.

MENA Infrastructure: Back on the
rail

Major railway expansion projects are underway, including the construction of regional network connecting the six Gulf Council countries, as well as individual national programmes.

Our latest infographic shows how Malaysia's top exports and markets have exceeded the expectations of economists and also registered their highest year-on-year growth since May 2014.

Last week, Vinamilk submitted a proposal to the government to allow foreign investors to own up to 100% of the company. Currently, foreign ownership is only allowed for up to 49% of the company and that cap has already been reached.

A recent OECD report showed that South Korea was already financially stable even before the 2008 global crisis. Currently, no reforms are needed to sustain its fiscal health, along with eight other OECD member countries which include Switzerland and Australia. In contrast, 14 advanced economies such as France, Japan, and the United States were advised to take steps to boost its fiscal health.

This week, Italian President Sergio Mattarella visits Indonesia. The first visit by an Italian leader since diplomatic ties between the two countries began in 1949. President Joko Widodo met with Mattarella to explore ways to boost the two countries’ economic partnership. 

The INE (National Statistics Institute) in Bolivia reported a 0,33% CPI increase in October 2015 against the previous month of the same year. According to M-Brain, the inflation was activated by the price increase of 0,64% in food and non-alcoholic drinks and is not expected to surpass 5,5% in 2015.

In the past few years the car makers of luxury brands in Peru started to offer lower price models, which led to slump in average prices of luxury vehicles from USD 55,000 (EUR 51,201.36) to USD 52,000 at present. This fall of prices is considered as a result of higher volume sales in the entry level segment of premium vehicles, where prices start from USD 40,000.

Argentina produced 45,240 vehicles in October, down from 60,845 in the same period in 2014, the country’s Adefa automotive association said on Friday. January to October was down 11.4% year on year, with only 462,791 vehicles being produced in contrast to 522,136 in the same period one year ago.

Ilyushin Finance, an “aviation dedicated lessor” as the company describes itself, is getting closer to acquisition of Red Wings Airlines, Moscow-headquartered airliner. Ilyushin Finance’s board could OK the deal by this December. In return to Red Wings’ undisclosed amount of liabilities, Ilyushin will get a stake of 74%.

Turkey’s Supreme Elections Committee announced the official results from the parliamentary elections, held on November 1. The Justice and Development (AK) Party secured 49.5% of the vote, winning 317 seats in the 550-member Grand National Assembly (TBMM).

Russia’s mobile operator VimpelCom, operating under the Beeline brand is ready to sell between 9,000 and 12,000 of its antennas and tripods, seeking deal for no less than USD 500 million. The target is selling at least 10,000 of these assets.

Egypt’s non-oil export reached USD 1.42 billion in October 2015, recording a slight increase of 0.5 % y-o-y. According to the minister, heading the Ministry of Trade and Industry, this first increase since the beginning of 2015 is positive sign of restoring growth rates. The non-oil export fell by nearly 30% in September 2015, comparing to September 2014.

Read more…

Ghana’s clean energy group Wuta Energy and Cummins Cogeneration Limited, part of the Cummins Power Generation group, signed an agreement to develop and put in production a 140 MW gas-based power plant. The project is estimated to cost USD 180 million and will be completed by August 2016.

Read more…

Qatari factories received investments of USD 82.3 billion in 2014. Their number grew to 761, employing almost 75,000 people. Nearly 90% of the factories are considered small or medium-sized businesses. Qatar received foreign direct investments of USD 1.04 billion last year, which accounts for close to 5% of all investments in countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

EMIS is designed specifically to provide organizations with the information they need to succeed in emerging markets through a unique combination of company, industry and country intelligence.

Read more…