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It’s hard to remember a period of greater uncertainty that has been caused by a scheduled and foreseeable event than the one we are currently experiencing. We are used to financial crises, wars and terrorist acts destabilising the global economy but the election of Donald Trump has led to a whole new level of guesswork in terms of its impact on emerging markets.
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Will we see “hard Trump” or “soft Trump”? Will his promised infrastructure and defence investment offer opportunities for emerging market exporters? Will it mean that interest rates rise, devaluing currencies in developing countries and hampering their growth? Will Congress even approve measures that would add so much to the national debt? Will there be a trade war and who, if anyone, would win?
At the moment, no one (probably including President-elect Trump himself) really knows the answers. We are in a strange “phoney war” where markets are placing bets with virtually no guide to form. The only predictable thing about Mr Trump appears to be his unpredictability as witnessed by the deliberations around his cabinet appointments and comments that contradict stated policy positions.
We have started to see the first in the raft of growth projections appearing for 2017. One thing is sure – economic forecasting is not getting any easier.
Guy Dunn
Chief Executive Officer.
P.S. Here are some related articles that I came across on the EMIS platform last week.
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TRUMP AND ASIA: WHAT TO EXPECT?
The process of "making America great again" is filled with perils and pitfalls, nowhere more so than in Asia. The intricacies and subtleties of the Great Game for Asia often are about as incomprehensible to the experts as they are to amateurs and know-nothings. As President-elect Donald Trump and his team plunge into the Game, can or will they do away with decades of efforts at "understanding" by U.S. diplomats and intelligence analysts?
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AMERICA AND THE WORLD IN TRANSITION
Speculation about Trump's likely foreign and domestic policies is rampant, but little if any of it is meaningful. Campaigning and governing are two very different activities, and there is no reason to assume that how Trump conducted the former will dictate how he approaches the latter. We also do not yet know who all the principal advisers will be and how (and how well) they will work together.
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WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR INDIA-US RELATIONS UNDER TRUMP PRESIDENCY?
The US President-elect's campaign rhetoric has fathered some queasy questions. Ever since the US Presidential election results were announced, there is one question that every country is trying to find an answer to - what will be the policy preferences of Donald J. Trump?
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In the 2015-2016 Global Competitiveness Report, published by the World Economic Forum (WEF), Colombia ranked 110th out of 140 countries in terms of quality of overall infrastructure, having the fifth highest score in South America.
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Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
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BANGLADESH ON THE LOOKOUT FOR NEW RICE MARKETS
In the recent World Grain Forum held in the Russian city of Sochi, Bangladesh’s Food Minister Advocate Qamrul Islam announced that the government is now looking for new markets for rice exports.
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BRAZIL’S GOV'T CUTS DOWN GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2017
Brazilian Finance Ministry lowered its growth projection for the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2017 from 1.6% to 1.0%.The Government also revised the forecast for the shrinkage of the economy this year from 3.0% to 3.5%.
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GUATEMALA’S CONSTRUC-TION SECTOR TO EXPAND BY 2.5% IN 2017
The construction sector in Guatemala will expand by 2.5% in 2017, the local Chamber of Construction (CGC) forecasted. However this growth projection is lower than the Bank of Guatemala’s outlook of 3% for 2017 because of the local delays in getting building permits approved.
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HUNGARY TO SLASH CORPORATE TAX RATE
Hungary will slash as of next year its corporate tax rate to a flat 9%, BBJ - Regional Today reported on Friday citing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as saying, the cabinet decided to lower it at a meeting on Wednesday, on a proposal by the economy minister and decisions taken earlier on payroll taxes.
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NIGERIA’S ECONOMY DOWN 2.2% IN Q3
Nigeria's economy declined by a real 2.2% in the third quarter on the year as militants kept on bombing the country’s oil pipelines and businesses struggled to get foreign exchange, Modern Ghana - Daily News reported on Monday citing official data.
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