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01 - 07 October
2016
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From
the CEO OF EMIS
The latest outlook from the IMF last week reinforced the increasingly important role that emerging markets play in the global economy. While US and western European growth remains sluggish, overall growth is largely supported by the developing markets of Asia. There is also the welcome prospect of some major emerging economies returning to positive growth territory in 2017.
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But within the overall encouraging growth picture for developing countries, there is a patchwork of narratives that demonstrate the danger of treating emerging markets or even regions holistically.
There are the star performers in Asia like India where policy reforms are boosting performance and the Philippines where the economy is gaining momentum through increased domestic demand. China, of course, remains the bellwether for growth and a forecast 6.2% in 2017 looks achievable if economic rebalancing remains on course.
In Latin America, Brazil is likely to enter a more tranquil period and emerge from recession while Argentina is set to bounce back to growth on the back of government reforms. But the reliance on commodity exports for most big Latin American economies means that Asia-type growth is a long way off.
Emerging European countries like Hungary show encouraging signs despite the difficulties of export partners in the euro area. Turkey, of course, has been derailed by recent political upheaval while Russia is forecast to return to growth but still faces huge structural problems.
Finally, in Africa there is what the IMF calls “multispeed growth” with traditional heavyweights like Nigeria and South Africa struggling to adjust while exporters less reliant on commodities like Kenya and Senegal prosper.
All of this adds up to a headline forecast of 4.6% growth on emerging markets in 2017. The devil, of course, is in the detail.
Guy Dunn
Chief Executive Officer.
P.S. Here are some articles on emerging market growth prospects from the EMIS platform in the past week.
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IMF WARNS OF PROTECTIONIST THREAT TO GLOBAL GROWTH
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said protectionist political trends risked ''turning back the clock'' on free trade, warning of a low-growth future for the global economy.
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SO FAR, SO GOOD FOR INDIA
India's macroeconomic fundamentals stand out amidst other emerging economies that, as commodity exporters, have taken a hit as a result falling prices over the last two years.
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ETHIOPIA TO BEAT KENYA AS EASTERN AFRICA'S TOP ECONOMY
Ethiopia's economy is expected to overtake Kenya's this year, buoyed by massive government spending on infrastructure that has kept the Horn of Africa nation in the list of the world's fastest economies in the past 10 years.
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Infographic
of the week
According to data from Facebrands.ro, the website that monitors pages created on Facebook. Romania now has 8.8 million users on Facebook.
In January 2011, Romanians had 2.405 million accounts, but in January 2016 the number had risen to 8.3 million.
21.3 percent of all Romanian Facebook pages were created and indexed within the period of November 2015 - September 2016, a substantial increase.
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Weekly
News summary
Below
are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS
Perspectives, our daily blog of
emerging market news and insights.
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