15 - 21 October 2016

From the CEO OF EMIS

“America has lost now.” This comment from Philippine President Duterte unsurprisingly garnered a good deal of attention last week. The president was talking about his country’s economic and military realignment, moving away from the US towards China and, potentially, Russia. The aggressive nature of these comments are consistent with the behaviour of Mr Duterte since he came to power earlier this year. The question is whether this shift in attitude will result in a long-term pivot for The Philippines and what does it mean more broadly for Asia?

Stripping aside the incendiary remarks, the new agreements on trade between the Philippines and China appear to be a logical progression. Why wouldn’t the Philippines want to capitalise on its relationship with the word’s new economic superpower? But it’s the idea that the country has to make a choice between China and the US that is flawed. President Duterte could have chosen to maintain the beneficial ties his country has with the US while still pushing for greater cooperation with China.

The separation from the US looks like an attempt to assert the Philippines’ independence and emergence from the old world order. It is being driven by a populist reformer with a tendency towards controversial statements who has been stoking up negative sentiment in a traditionally pro-US country. Filipinos would do well to consider that the choice of economic partners is not binary.

Guy Dunn
Chief Executive Officer.


P.S. Here are some articles on this subject that I came across on the EMIS platform in the past week.

DUTERTE AND HIS ADMINISTRATION ARE BETTING ON THE CHINESE GOODWILL

The Duterte administration is gambling on the benevolence of China to the extent of sacrificing its relations with a long-time and proven ally, an expert in Southeast Asian affairs, defense and security warily said.

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SHINZO ABE PLANS PRIVATE PERSONAL MEETINGS WITH RODRIGO DUTERTE

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans private personal meetings with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte in Tokyo next week seeking to keep him onside with U.S.-led efforts to contain Beijing's South China Sea ambitions.

DUTERTE WANTS TO BE REMEMBERED AS THE PRESIDENT WHO TRIED HIS BEST

President Rodrigo Duterte has told the Filipino community in Beijing that he wants to be remembered as the president who tried his best to fight corruption, criminality and illegal drugs.

Peru is a relevant regional player in the production of ferrous and non-ferrous metals. In 2015, the country was the third largest South American producer of direct reduced iron with a 2.8% share, the third biggest producer of long steel with a 5.8% share, and the sixth leading manufacturer of flat steel and crude steel with 0.2% and 2.5% shares, respectively.

A trending high-fat, low-carb Western diet has resulted to a rise in sales of pork belly (7.6%), butter (41.4%), and cheese (10.3%) compared to the same period last year.

India announced that by 2030, it will be eliminating the use of HFC-23, one of the more potent greenhouse gases that deplete the earth’s protective ozone layer.




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In a bid to stabilize the financial market and prevent further volatility during the mourning period for King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has asked for cooperation from the country’s commercial banks.

Mexico will experience the strongest steel production growth in the Americas in 2017-2020, BMI Research projected. According to this source, the Aztec country’s steel output will grow 9.30% annually

The Chilean copper production is expected to be at 5.4 million tonnes this year, down 4% on the year, M-Brain - News Monitoring reported.

Ecuador’s total consolidated public debt reached USD 37.8bn in September, the local Ministry of Finance reported. This amount represents 39.2% of GDP which is just under the 40% legal limit set under the 2008 constitution.



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Russia’s top oil producer Rosneft may carry out a share buyback if no strategic investor appears for the privatisation of a 19.5% stake in it by mid-November.



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Poland could switch to the euro currency in the next 5-10 years, PNB - Polish News Bulletin reported on Monday citing Deputy Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki as saying.



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Japanese carmaker Toyota will build a PLN 650 million (EUR 150 million) factory in Poland, PAP Market Insider reported on Thursday.



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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that Saudi Arabia’s economy will rebound 2% next year as the government’s austerity efforts will ease.




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Nigeria has remained Africa’s largest economy, ahead of South Africa and Egypt, Vanguard-Nigeria reported on Wednesday citing a recent estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).



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Saudi Arabia raised $17.5 billion on Wednesday in its debut international bond sale, the largest-ever emerging market bond issue.

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