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27 November 2017
FROM THE CEO OF EMIS
The downfall of Robert Mugabe was understandably greeted with jubilation by most Zimbabweans. As the initial euphoria fades, attention inevitably turns to what needs to be done to return the country to some form of political and economic normality.

Mugabe’s misrule has had a profound effect on Zimbabwe’s economy which has halved in size since the turn of the century. The country has no currency of its own, is hugely in debt and a 90% unemployment rate. 
The IMF has said that Zimbabwe needs to resolve its arrears with the World Bank and others before it will consider future financing requests.

There are other factors that point to a potentially brighter future. The country’s new leader, Emmerson Mnangagwa, has signaled his intention run the country’s finances in a very different fashion. Zimbabwe’s abundance of mineral resources provide huge opportunity for growth if managed properly. The millions of skilled Zimbabwean who left the country as a result of Mugabe’s policies could return home to lend their support to the country’s re-emergence.

There are too many imponderables to confidently predict a reversal of fortune for Zimbabwe. As always, everything depends on the political will to implement difficult and lasting reforms. But, at the very least, it is difficult to imagine how things could get any worse.



Guy Dunn


P.S. Here are some articles I found on EMIS last week on the situation in Zimbabwe.

ZIMBABWE AFTER MUGABE
A 'coup' in mineral-rich Zimbabwe, now in an economic mess, opens up a fluid situation

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POST MUGABE ERA IS FULL DEMOCRACY, SAYS MNANGAGWA
Emmerson Mnangagwa told adoring crowds in Harare on Wednesday that they were witnessing "unfolding full democracy" as he returned to take power after Robert Mugabe stepped down after 37 years in power.

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CHINA WILL NOT CHANGE FRIENDLY POLICY TOWARD ZIMBABWE
China's friendly policy toward Zimbabwe will not change, and Robert Mugabe remains "a good friend of Chinese people" despite of his resignation from the presidential post, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said on Wednesday.

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INFOGRAPHIC OF THE WEEK
ARGENTINA RETAIL SECTOR 2017/2018

Argentina is the second-largest economy in South America after Brazil in terms of nominal GDP. It is an important consumer market with a population of over 43.6mn people, as of December 2016. During the period 2011–2016, the trade sector underperformed, with its GVA contracting by an average of 1.4% per year.

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CEIC DATA POINT OF THE WEEK
CEIC Data is a sister company of EMIS and part of the Euromoney Data Division
SOUTH AFRICA PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDEX (PMI)
South Africa has registered its best Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) performance in five months. The seasonally adjusted PMI rose with 2,9 percentage points, from 44,9 in September to 47,8 in October 2017.
   Click to view it full screen   
WEEKLY NEWS SUMMARY
Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
    ASIA    
HO CHI MINH CITY EXPECTS TO EXPORT OVER $20 MILLION WORTH OF ORNAMENTAL FISH BY THE END OF 2017
The value of Ho Chi Minh City’s ornamental fish exports has reached $17.58 million in the first 10 months of 2017, a 20.7% increase compared to the same period last year.

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THAILAND TO COOPERATE WITH A CHINESE COMPANY TO SET UP A JOINT DEFENCE FACILITY
The Thai government’s Defence Technology Institute will partner with China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO), a Chinese multinational defence company, to establish a commercial joint defence facility in the north-eastern province of Khon Kaen in July next year.

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PRESIDENT XI URGES NGOS TO STRENGTHEN TIES IN THE 1ST SILK ROAD NGO COOPERATION NETWORK FORUM
Chinese president Xi Jinping has encouraged non-governmental organizations (NGOs) along the Silk Road to enhance the cooperation between people of different countries in a bid to promote the success of the One Belt and One Road initiative.

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              LATIN AMERICA              
FDI IN MEXICO SOARS 32.5% Y/Y IN Q3
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico jumped 32.5% year-on-year to USD 5.71bn in the third quarter of 2017, local daily El Financiero reported citing figures released by the Ministry of Economy. 

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SUPERMARKET SALES IN ARGENTINA UP 1.5% Y/Y IN SEPTEMBER
Supermarket sales in Argentina rose 1.5% year-on-year in real terms in September, CEEMarketWatch reported citing figures released by the statistics institute INDEC. 

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TOURISM SPENDING IN PANAMA RISES 2.1% Y/Y IN JAN-SEP
Overall tourism spending in Panama increased 2.1% year-on-year reaching USD 3.44bn in the first nine months of 2017, M-Brain news agency reported citing figures released by the Panamanian Tourism Authority (ATP). 
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     EMERGING EUROPE     
PURCHASING POWER IN HUNGARY GROWS OVER 10% Y/Y IN 2017
Purchasing power in Hungary has jumped by over 10% on the year to EUR 6,204 per capita for 2017, BBJ reported citing a report by market researcher GfK.

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PFIZER ROMANIA ESTIMATES 16% GROWTH IN REVENUE IN 2017
Pfizer Romania, the fourth leading actor on the local pharmaceutical market expects to end 2017 with 16% growth in revenue, with almost RON750 million (EUR162 million). 

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QATAR AIRWAYS TO BOOST DAILY FLIGHTS TO EUROPE, RUSSIA
Qatar Airways plans to increase its daily flights to some parts of Europe and Russia, the Gulf Times reported. 

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          MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA          
COCA-COLA HALTS PRODUCTION IN TURKMENISTAN
Turkmenistan Coca-Cola Bottlers Ltd., engaged in the production and distribution of soft drinks, is on the verge of closure, Azerbaijan Media Digest reported, referring to Chronicle of Turkmenistan agency.

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UZBEKISTAN TO INCREASE PRODUCTION OF JEWELRY
Uzbekistan is set to up production of jewelry by 2020 threefold from the forecasted 589.6 kg in 2018 to more than 1.7 tons in 2020, Trend reported. 

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FUEL DEMAND IN GCC STATES TO RETURN TO NORMAL IN 2018
Fuel demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states is expected to return to normal in 2018 after a slump in consumption in the past two years, Arabian Business reported citing a forecast released by BMI Research. 

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