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The
seemingly inexorable rise of Bitcoin came to an
abrupt halt last week. The first hit came from
JP Morgan boss Jamie Dymon who suggested that
the trend in cryptocurrency was effectively a
fraud and compared it to the bubble caused by
“tulip mania” in the 17th century. Perhaps more
worryingly for Bitcoin believers was the news
that a trading ban on the currency is imminent
in China. As a result, the value of Bitcoin has
fallen by around 40% compared to the highs of
early
September.
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Why has China decided to
halt Bitcoin trading? The most obvious reason is
that it is trying to contain the risks
associated with what is seen as a highly
speculative market. There is also the fear that
the currency is associated with illegal funding
and investment. Equally, China’s government is
unlikely to look favourably on a currency that
allows large amounts of money to move quickly
and to unknown destinations.
There are
signals that China is looking to create its own
digital currency but one that is subject to far
greater regulation. The country is also taking
the initiative in encouraging more global
regulation of digital currencies.
Bitcoin
is likely to survive these blows in the short
term as it seems to have developed a broad and
enthusiastic band of followers. Its value is
still three times what it was at the start of
the year. But its longer term prospects will
certainly be challenged if others decide to
follow China’s lead.
Guy Dunn
P.S. Here are some articles I found on
EMIS last week relating to this
issue.
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BITCOIN IS BOOMING
IN SOUTH
KOREA
Price
fluctuations in South Korea's bitcoin and other
cryptocurrency exchanges are heavier than other
nations as its volatility is driven by rumours
and speculative information.
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INDIA RETAIL SECTOR
REPORT
2016/2017
The gross value added of
India’s retail sector expanded at a CAGR of 9.6%
over the period FY2012-FY2016. The growth was
driven by positive demographic trends, an
ongoing urbanisation and a growing middle class.
In FY2016 trade accounted for 9.5% of the
country’s GDP and attracted 9.7% of total FDI,
while providing work for around 8% of the
workforce.
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| CEIC DATA POINT OF
THE WEEK
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| CEIC
Data is a sister company of EMIS and
part of the Euromoney Data
Division
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CHINA’S INFLATION
BEATS MARKET CONSENSUS IN
AUGUST
On a month-over-month
(m-o-m) basis, PPI rose 0.9% m-o-m, accelerating
by 0.7 ppt compared to July’s headline reading.
Core CPI, with volatile food and energy prices
excluded, was steadily moving higher to 2.2%
y-o-y in August.
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| Below are
the most read articles in the past week on EMIS
Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market
news and insights.
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CHINA IS LOOKING
FORWARD TO STOP PRODUCING FOSSIL-FUEL
CARS
China’s vice
minister of industry has made an announcement at
a forum on automotive industry development in
Tianjin on Saturday that the country is
currently working towards ending the production
and sales of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles.
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NEW CAR SALES IN
CHILE JUMP 44% Y/Y IN
AUGUST
New car sales in Chile
soared 44% year-on-year to 35.354 units in
August, CEEMarketWatch reported citing figures
released by the National Association of Vehicle
Distributors (ANAC).
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