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26 September 2017
FROM THE CEO OF EMIS
At the time of writing, Iraqi Kurds are expected to vote in favour of independence for their previously semi-autonomous region. The prospect has caused widespread concern within the region and beyond that the decision will result in further destabilisation in an area of the world that could do without any more upheaval at this time.

Most of the international opposition to the vote is founded in the fear that it will undermine the increasingly successful push to eradicate Islamic State in which Kurdish forces have 
been so instrumental. The concern for countries like Turkey and Iran is that an independence vote will embolden Kurdish populations within their own borders who are also eager to establish autonomy.

From the Kurdish perspective, there is the strong sense that they have earned this moment through their fight against IS and that promises of a negotiated path to independence may not materialise once that battle is over. 

A vote for independence in itself may only be symbolic as it will not be recognized as legitimate by either Iraq or the wider international community. But it is likely to be a first major step on a path to an independent Kurdistan that has been delayed and denied on many occasions in the past hundred years.

Guy Dunn

P.S. Here are some articles I found on EMIS last week relating to this issue.

KURDISTAN'S REFERENDUM:NEXT STEPS
The recent call for an independence referendum among Kurds has, unsurprisingly, triggered conflict between supporters for and opponents to independence.
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IRAQI KURDS COULD FACE SANCTIONS OVER REFERENDUM
Turkey has warned the Kurds of northern Iraq they would face sanctions over a non-binding referendum on independence vehemently rejected by Ankara.
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IRAQ'S KURDISH REGION: AUTONOMOUS AND OIL-RICH
Iraq's Kurdish region, which is holding a referendum on statehood on Monday, has been autonomous since 1991 and has played a major role in the war against jihadists.
   Read more   
INFOGRAPHIC OF THE WEEK
RUSSIA RETAIL SECTOR REPORT 2017/2018

Russia is the ninth most populous country in the world and is among the largest consumer markets on a global scale. It is a commodity dependent economy as trade contributes about 20% to the country’s GDP. In recent years the retail sector in Russia is going through many difficulties. 

   Click to view it full screen   
CEIC DATA POINT OF THE WEEK
CEIC Data is a sister company of EMIS and part of the Euromoney Data Division
CHINA’S EXPORTS DECELERATED IN AUGUST
China’s foreign trade rallied significantly in Q1 2017 thanks to recovered demand from home and abroad. However, an obvious deviation was identified in August trade data.
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WEEKLY NEWS SUMMARY
Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
    ASIA    
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT YET TO DECIDE ON THE PROPOSED COST-BASED PRICING POLICY FOR COAL
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Ignasius Jonan said they are yet to make a decision on PLN’s proposed cost-based pricing policy through which it could buy coal from local miners under their domestic market obligation. 
   Read more   
CITI AND STANDARD CHARTERED EYE EXPANSION OF OPERATIONS IN CHINA
Overseas banks are looking at new opportunities in China as a result of the Belt and Road Initiative, the country’s interbank bond market and renminbi trading prospects. 

   Read more   
CHINESE LABOUR MARKET IMPROVED IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2017
China has seen its CIER employment index increased to 2.26 in the second quarter of 2017, up from 1.93 in the same period last year. 

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              LATIN AMERICA              
2017 TO BE HISTORICAL YEAR FOR BRAZIL IPO
Brazilian Airliner Azul was the most recent company to attract many investors for its Initial Public Offering (IPO). For a BRL1.1bn offering there was a demand for four times more.

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AT LEAST 226 PEOPLE KILLED BY 7.1 EARTHQUAKE NEAR MEXICO CITY
At least 226 people were killed by a 7.1 magnitude earthquake that hit central Mexico on Tuesday, the local Diario de Queretaro reported. 64 of them were reported in Morelos, 49 in Mexico City and 32 in Puebla. 

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ECUADOR MULLS SALE OF HYDRO-ELECTRIC PLANT
The government of Ecuador is considering an option to sell the Sopladora hydroelectric power plant as part of its efforts to provide extra cash to the state budget

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     EMERGING EUROPE     
BANCA TRANSILVANIA TO ЕNTER FINAL TALKS TO BUY BANCPOST
Banca Transilvania is аbout to еnter final talks to buy Bancpost as after several months of talks. Eurobank, the main shareholder of Bancpost and its investment bankers have selected Banca Transilvania for final talks.

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TURKEY TO ISSUE PILOT GOLD DENOMINATED BONDS IN EARLY OCTOBER
Turkey has been preparing a pilot issue of gold-denominated bonds (sovereign gold bonds) and lease certificates (sukuk) denominated in gold.

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BAGS AND LUGGAGE MARKET IN ROMANIA UP ALMOST 8% IN 2016
Romania`s bags and luggage market grew by almost 8% in 2016 compared to results from 2015, reaching EUR178 million (RON800 million), Ziarul Financiar reported, referring to Euromonitor data. 
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          MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA          
DUBAI TO START CONSTRUCTION OF USD 3.9BN SOLAR FARM IN 2018
Construction works on a USD 3.9bn project for the construction of the world's largest single-site concentrated solar power (CSP) project in Dubai will start next year.

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KENYAN BANKS TO IMPLEMENT NEW CYBER SECURITY RULES
Kenyan banks are expected to implement new cyber security rules in line with the guidelines provided by Central Bank of Kenya (CBK). 

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KAZAKHSTAN AND RUSSIA TO CO-OP IN NUCLEAR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
Two countries signed an agreement on cooperation in scientific research and nuclear energy developments.


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