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Last week The Economist published a special report on emerging markets that, on the whole, relayed a very positive message about the current situation and future prospects of developing economies. The report’s findings supported the idea that emerging markets are now far more resilient to external shocks, something that I have noted several times recently in this newsletter. There certainly appears to be less of the “drama” that has traditionally surrounded emerging economies and that has often dissuaded foreign investment.
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Political instability remains a major risk but, in these unusual times, developed markets look equally volatile in this regard.
An interesting point made in the report is that 2017 data point to a trend towards globalisation at a time when protectionism was meant to hold sway. Emerging markets exports are experiencing their highest level of growth in six years. EM currencies are also holding their own and many have strengthened considerably over the course of the year. And emerging market stocks are on course for their best performance in nearly a decade.
Of course, there are all manner of possible events that could derail this optimism and the unpredictability of US policy adds uncertainty. But barring shocks and provided economic governance continues to mature, the realisation of the still massive potential of emerging markets looks set to continue.
Guy Dunn
P.S. Here are some articles I found on EMIS last week that reflect optimism on the future of emerging markets
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IMF MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT GLOBAL RECOVERY
IMF chief Christine Lagarde said that the long-awaited global recovery is taking roots and asked the global community to seize this opportunity of the upswing to create a more inclusive economy that works for all.
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REDEFINING EMERGING MARKETS
For the past decade, Arif Naqvi, founder and group chief executive of Dubai's The Abraaj Group, a leading global private equity firm, has been trying to dispel the myth of the so-called emerging markets.
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THAILAND OIL & GAS SECTOR REPORT 2017/2018
Thailand is the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia and has a voracious demand for oil and gas. Over 75% of the country’s power generation is based on natural gas. Its oil and gas reserves are falling amid rising domestic petroleum consumption, which has made the market heavily reliant on imports of both oil and gas to meet its needs.
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CEIC DATA POINT OF THE WEEK
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CEIC Data is a sister company of EMIS and part of the Euromoney Data Division
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Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
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DAIMLER TO SET UP A NEW TRUCK DISTRIBUTION CENTRE IN THAILAND
Daimler AG, a German manufacturer of motor vehicles, is set to invest 200 million baht to construct a truck distribution centre in the central region of Thailand in order to facilitate its business in the country’s truck market, the Bangkok Post has reported.
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ABOUT EMIS
EMIS operates in and reports on countries where high reward goes hand-in-hand with high risk. We bring you time-sensitive, hard-to-get, relevant news, research and analytical data, peer comparisons and more for over 120 emerging markets.
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EMIS CHARTING TOOL
EMIS CHARTS uses selected data points from the subscription-based EMIS service, to provide you with an interactive overview of sectors, key players and macroeconomic trends across 120+ emerging markets and allows you to create your own charts.
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