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16 January 2017
FROM THE CEO OF EMIS
This week I want to point you in the direction of a fascinating report published by our EMIS Insights team on the prospects for emerging markets in 2017. The report, EMIS Foresight 2017, examines the factors that will shape the development of developing economies in the coming year. Here are a few of the things that I gleaned from reading the report:
1) We should expect emerging economies to improve generally in 2017 but risks are bigger and more widespread.
2) The fortunes of emerging markets are still inextricably tied to the measures taken by developed countries to stimulate economic growth through fiscal policy.
3) China’s is displacing developed economies in terms of M&A activity in emerging markets
4) Conditions for growth are good in Central and Eastern Europe but Brexit and a potential refugee crisis loom large.
5) The recoveries of Brazil and Argentina are particularly at risk from currency depreciation
6) Asian economies will continue to look to inwards for growth as global trade diminishes


Do take the time to download the full report. It is completely free and delves into great detail for a number of key countries and sectors.

While I am in the process of promoting new EMIS initiatives, I also suggest that you take a stab at our new weekly EMIS quiz that tests your knowledge of recent events.


Guy Dunn

P.S. Here are some articles I came across on the EMIS platform last week that caught my eye.

XI JINPING TO BECOME THE FIRST CHINESE PRESIDENT TO ATTEND WEF IN DAVOS
Fighting trade protectionism and anti-globalization, as well as boosting confidence in the Chinese economy, will be high on President Xi Jinping's agenda as he becomes the first top Chinese leader to attend and address the World Economic Forum annual meeting, observers say.
  Read more  
STRUCTURAL REFORMS COULD DRIVE 3% GROWTH RATE IN RUSSIA BY 2019
The Russian economy could reach growth rates of over 3 percent by 2019 if structural reforms are implemented according to the country's former finance minister and the chairman of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) board, Alexei Kudrin.
  Read more  
LULA DA SILVA HAS PLANS TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2018
Former Brazilian President Lula da Silva, confirmed Wednesday that "he is preparing" to run for the presidency in 2018, should it "be necessary." In reference to allegations that opponents may seek a legal injunction to stop him from running, Lula said that everybody should be able to run for president
  Read more  
INFOGRAPHIC OF THE WEEK
STAYING ALIVE? RUSSIA HEALTHCARE SECTOR 2016/2017
The healthcare system is in dire need of financing as lower oil prices and a sharply devalued ruble have made the centralised, federal budget-funded healthcare system model inefficient.


  Click to view it full screen  
WEEKLY NEWS SUMMARY
Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
  ASIA  
THE ECONOMIST: PAKISTAN TO BE FASTEST-GROWING MUSLIM ECONOMY IN 2017
Pakistan is expected to be the world’s fastest-growing Muslim economy in 2017, APP - Daily News reported on Wednesday citing the influential UK magazine The Economist. 

  Read more  
BCG REPORT PREDICTS ALIBABA TO GENERATE 100 MILLION JOBS BY 2035
A report from the Boston Consulting Group predicted that China’s digital economy will generate over 400 million jobs by 2035, reported Shanghai Daily.  

  Read more  
INDIA'S LOCAL MANUFACTURERS URGED TO MAKE CHEAP SMARTPHONES
The Indian government is urging local handset makers to look into creating cheaper, less than INR 2,000 smartphones.

  Read more  
        LATIN AMERICA        
GROWTH OF ENERGY PRICES TO LIFT CONSTRUCTION COSTS UP TO 30% – AMIC
A recent growth of gasoline and electricity prices would lift construction costs up to 30%, M-Brain reported on Monday citing an open letter by the Mexican construction industry association (AMIC).
  Read more  
CREDIT SUISSE: BRAZIL’S ECONOMY MOST CLOSED AMONG EMERGING MARKETS
Brazil’s economy is the most closed one among the emerging markets, business daily Valor Economico International reported on Tuesday citing a study by Credit Suisse. 

  Read more  
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECT INVESTMENT IN CHILE TO REACH USD 2.3BN IN 2017
Investment in renewable energy in Chile is expected to reach USD 2.30bn (EUR 2.05bn) in 2017, news agency M-Brain reported citing the local renewable energy chamber Acera.

  Read more  
              EMERGING EUROPE              
RUSSIA TO BAN SALES OF TOBACCO PRODUCTS TO NEW GENERATION
Individuals born after 2015 will be banned to buy tobacco products during their lifetime, according to a 2017-2022 anti-tobacco draft concept by the Russia's Healthcare Ministry, newswire Prime reported. 

  Read more  
CONSTRUCTION OF POLAND’S TALLEST OFFICE COMPLEX STARTS IN WARSAW
Real estate developer HB Reavis has started the construction of the highest office building in Poland that will be located in the very centre of the Polish capital Warsaw.

  Read more  
FRENCH YVES ROCHER ACQUIRES STORES OF ITS ROMANIAN FRANCHISE
French cosmetics brand Yves Rocher has acquires some 40 stores in Romania from its local franchisee in a transaction valued at several million euro, business daily Ziarul Financiar reported. 

  Read more  
                 MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA                 
EGYPT NEEDS TO BOOST OUTPUT, CUT IMPORTS TO CURB FOREIGN DEBT
Egypt has to boost output and slash imports to minimum in order to curb the country’s foreign debt, which reached $60.2 billion in September from $55.8 billion at end-June. 
  Read more  
COTE D'IVOIRE’S PM & GOVT RESIGN
Cote d'Ivoire’s Prime Minister, Daniel Kablan Duncan, and his government resigned on Monday, a move that coincided with rising security concerns and social protests in the west African country.

  Read more  
UGANDA’S FLOWER EXPORTS START REBOUNDING
Uganda’s flower industry, which used to be among the country’s top five exporters in the past, started rebounding last year, The Daily Montor Uganda reported.

  Read more  
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