Inevitably, early reaction to the UK’s decision to leave the European Union has focused on the reaction of the financial markets

18 - 24 June 2016

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From the CEO OF EMIS

Inevitably, early reaction to the UK’s decision to leave the European Union has focused on the reaction of the financial markets and the ensuing political upheaval in the country. From a European emerging market perspective, the big question now is to what degree the UK’s decision undermines the commitment of the remaining members to the EU.

Brexit will undoubtedly embolden anti-EU movements in other countries.

The debate about membership is likely to be a central feature of next year’s French presidential election due to the heavy support of the Front National. And there are sure to be calls for referenda in Italy and the Netherlands.

This uncertainty is worrying for countries like Poland and Romania whose economic prospects are so dependent on free trade and open borders with large European markets. In the short-term, countries in central and eastern Europe are likely to experience reduced funding after the UK leaves. There will also be a drop in remittances from citizens who were previously free to work in Britain. Longer-term, the hope must be that Brexit acts as a spur for EU reforms that prevent other members from leaving and a reversal of decades of progress for European emerging markets.



Guy Dunn
Chief Executive Officer


Here are a few articles I came across on the EMIS service on early reaction to Brexit:

POLISH CURRENCY WEAKENS ON BREXIT

The Polish national currency, the zloty, has weakened on Friday morning as the UK voted to exit the European Union.


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BREXIT WILL HAVE BROAD IMPLICATIONS FOR HUNGARY'S ECONOMY

Minister Mihály Varga and other experts believe that the decision by U.K. citizens to exit the European Union, will have big impact for Hungary's economy


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BREXIT WILL SLOWDOWN CZECH GDP GROWTH

Analysts addressed by CTK declared that Brexit will slowdown Czech GDP growth by several tenths of a percentage point this year.


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