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All in all, 2017 has been a pretty good year for emerging markets – and far better than the one that was anticipated by many at the start of the year. Back in January there was widespread concern about the impact of new US policy and an ever-strengthening dollar. But developing countries have demonstrated a new-found resilience this year, one that bodes well for the future.
Of course, complacency is a dangerous thing and we live in an unpredictable world where the most unlikely events now
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seem far more possible. Against that uncertain backdrop, I have again taken a stab at some light-hearted forecasts for next year. I will take a more serious look ahead in my first January newsletter but, for now, I hope you enjoy my alternative predictions for 2018:
January 2018 - Hemmed in by its own Brexit conundrums, the UK announces plans to build a border wall with Ireland. In a show of solidarity, US President Donald Trump tweets that he’ll get Mexico to pay for it.
February 2018 - The Winter Olympics open in South Korea. Events are delayed for several hours after the latest North Korean missile test is mistaken for part of the opening ceremony.
March 2018 - The Russian presidential elections take place. The Russian authorities accuse the US of ‘interfering’ in the process after Vladimir Putin gets only 98% of the vote.
April 2018 - In a desperate attempt to break from the hyperinflationary days of his predecessor, President Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe announces the adoption of Bitcoin as the country’s new currency.
May 2018 - Following the royal wedding of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle in London, there is intense and bitter disagreement about the size of the crowd that turned out. Donald Trump is 71 years old and lives in Washington.
June 2018 - The Saudi Arabian law allowing women to drive cars comes into force. In an unrelated development, the government announces plans to adopt driverless cars nationwide by 2020.
July 2018 - Over-awed by actually competing in a major sporting contest, the hosts Russia lose in the first round of the World Cup. England fall victims to their own hype, Brazil fall victim to their history, while the French fall out with each other. In the final, the old adage that ‘football is a game played by 22 men after which the Germans win on penalties’ is proved correct.
August 2018 - As Brexit talks stall, the UK government announces plans to hold a referendum on whether there should be a referendum on whether to accept the results of the original referendum. The non-binding results are too close to call, but are obviously a clear reflection of the will of the people.
September 2018 - US President Donald Trump announces he is leaving Twitter in frustration at the need to double his output to 280 characters per tweet. In his final tweet, he urges his supporters to follow him over to new Steve Bannon social media startup Fakebook.
October 2018 - In a surprise move, the EU withdraws its opposition to Catalan secession from Spain. EU President Donald Tusk is later forced to deny the shift in policy is prompted by budgetary concern about reprinting stationary to reflect the reduced number of stars on the EU flag following Brexit.
November 2018 - In massive consumer news, Apple launched its new i-phone Z#Y. Apple aficionados are delighted to spend hundreds of dollars to get their hands on the new device with its even more powerful camera.
December 2018 - At the Golden Globe nominations, the Best Actor category is replaced by the new Best Behaved Actor award. No nominees are received.
Guy Dunn
P.S. As this is the final EMIS newsletter of 2017, I would like to wish you all a happy and peaceful holiday season.
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PERU REAL ESTATE & CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 2017/2018
Construction is among the largest economic sectors of Peru in terms of share of total GDP, ranking fourth behind only oil and gas, industry and trade. In 2016, construction accounted for 6.3% of domestic GDP, 1.5% of total FDI stock and 5.3% of employment in the city of Lima.
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CEIC DATA POINT OF THE WEEK
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CEIC Data is a sister company of EMIS and part of the Euromoney Data Division
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INDIA FOREIGN TRADE POLICY REVIEW
The Indian Commerce and Industry Ministry released a review of the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) for the period 2015-20 on December 5. The most discussed point of the presentation was the enhancement of the scope of the Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) and the Service Exports from India Scheme (SEIS).
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Below are the most read articles in the past week on EMIS Perspectives, our daily blog of emerging market news and insights.
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BUS SALES IN MEXICO DROP 10.6% Y/Y IN NOVEMBER
Retail bus sales in Mexico dropped 10.6% year-on-year to 806 units in November, M-Brain news agency reported citing figures released by the local association of bus and truck manufacturers (ANPACT).
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ROMANIA, SECOND NUT PRODUCER IN EU
Romania is the second largest producer of nuts in the European Union, harvesting nearly 32,000 tons of nuts from a total area of 1,670 hectares last year.
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SOUTH AFRICA WANTS TO STEP UP BRICS CO-OPERATION
South Africa is eying closer economic co-operation with investors from the BRICS states, Oreanda reported citing South African President Jacob Zuma as saying before the country’s parliament today.
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IRAN, IRAQ SIGN KIRKUK OIL SWAP DEAL
Iran and Iraq have inked a one-year oil swap deal which covers an exchange of 60,000 barrels per day of crude oil produced from the northern Iraqi Kirkuk oilfield for Iranian oil, BBJ reported.
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ABOUT EMIS
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EMIS CHARTS uses selected data points from the subscription-based EMIS service, to provide you with an interactive overview of sectors, key players and macroeconomic trends across 120+ emerging markets and allows you to create your own charts.
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